Or who is on an upward swing, who is going round in circles and who is on the big chute out of the Scottish Parliament?
There is a very healthy sense of competition about this Scottish Election and a feeling of a high stakes game in the political playground.
This is the time when politicians can feel most exposed and vulnerable because others –that’s us voters – are deciding individual futures and contributing to who will be in power and who won’t.
Conventional analysis tells us that the make or break outcome is played out in just a few key or swing marginal seats, but this election is looking a bit different in some respects.
Different boundaries have created notional changes to the 2007 results in 4 constituencies.
Edinburgh Eastern (Kenny MacAskill) and Glasgow Southside (Nicola Sturgeon) would have been Labour on the notional results. On the present swing projections I predict than both these high profile SNP Cabinet Secretaries will hold their seats.
The new Scottish constituency, with the longest name, Midlothian South Tweeddale and Lauderdale is again a battlefield between the LibDem’s Jeremy Purvis and the redoubtable Christine Grahame for the SNP.
Close results in 2003 and 2007, with less than 600 votes between the contenders, looks like third time lucky for Christine Grahame. The added Midlothian wards give her a notional majority of 1200 and that’s without taking polling trends into account.
Aberdeen Central, where SNP Cabinet Secretary Richard Lochhead built up the SNP vote before winning the Moray seat, becomes a notional SNP win on the new boundaries with a notional 349 majority. Former Labour Minister, Lewis Macdonald, is hoping to hold this for Labour and return to the Scottish Parliament. I predict an SNP win.
Scotland has 73 constituencies with a further 56 regional seats allocated to balance the support the different parties receive.
Going into this election the SNP have 21 constituency seats, the Labour Party 34, the Lib Dems 12 and the Conservatives 6 with their total seats in the Parliament made up from the Regional lists.
In this analysis we will be looking at how the recent polls may be pointing to a marked change in the balance of constituency seats held.
On up to a 2% swing to the SNP, Labour loses 5 seats (Aberdeen Central, Airdrie & Shotts, Clydebank & Milngavie, Linlithgow, Stirling) and the Lib Dems lose Midlothian South Tweedside & Laudererdale.
On a 3% swing the SNP pick up a further 3 Labour seats (Dumbarton, Glasgow Kelvin, Midlothian North & Musselburgh).
At this point the SNP would have overtaken Labour as the party with the largest number of constituency seats. The constituency ‘redistribution’ would now produce SNP 30 seats Labour 26 Lib Dem 11 and Conservative still on 6 seats.
On a 4 % swing to the SNP the Labour Party’s seats fall like a house of cards on a puff of breath.
The SNP would pick up a further nine seats, 6 from Labour (Cumbernauld and Kilsyth, East Kilbride Andy Kerr, East Lothian Iain Gray, Edinburgh Northern and Leith, Falkirk East, Glasgow Cathcart).
Lib Dems would lose 2 (Aberdeen South & Kincardine, Caithness Sutherland & Ross) and the Tories would lose Galloway & West Dumfries.
On a 5% swing Labour would lose Cunninghame South and the Lib Dems Dunfermline. The constituency ‘redistribution’ would now be SNP 41, Labour 19, Lib Dem 8 and Tories 5.
If we see a 6% swing to the SNP Labour could lose another 4 seats (Clydebank & Milngavie, Kirkcaldy, Renfrewshire North & West, Strathkelvin & Bearsden and the LibDems would be inline to lose Farquhar Munro’s fomer seat (Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch).
Farquhar Munro caused a bit of consternation in Lib Dem circles when he came out in favour of Alex Salmond as First Minister.
With a 13% lead in the constituency vote in some recent polls and an 18% lead for the SNP in the latest TNS poll these seats are certainly in play.
Do I expect it to work out like this? Well no. As voters in our local constituencies we do not always mirror exactly the national swings.
But you will realise from these figures the ground shuddering and cataclysmic shift that the fourth Scottish Parliamentary Election may well produce.
We will probably see some smaller swings in some of these constituencies than the polls foreshadow. But there will be some areas where the swings might actually be larger.
The Tory vote is under pressure and the Lib Dem vote is in freefall if the polls and the psephologists predictions prove accurate.
One to watch is Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire where the Tories ousted Lib Dem Ewan Robson at the last election. My sources tell me the Tories are worried and with the LibDem vote likely to fall further, the SNP may come though from 3rd place to sneak another seat from the Tories.
I predict a recount on this one at the very least.
The Labour Party have never recognised those returned on the list as equal to constituency MSPs. By their own definition a majority of Labour MSPs elected might well be in this ‘second class’ category.
It is becoming increasingly difficult to believe that the effect on the Labour front bench will be anything short of annihilation. As Labour leader, Iain Gray probably has a little extra protection in East Lothian.
On the other hand there may be an Anne Moffat effect from recent turmoil within East Lothian Labour ranks. Gray did not display much leadership skill when his constituency party were tearing lumps out of one another.
Did they ever, in their wildest nightmares, think that the Regional Lists would be their safety net?
As trends indicate Labour might be very dependent on the Regional Lists for a significant, and conceivably the majority, of their seats in the new parliament that also raises questions.
Will this intake be new fresh blood or perhaps those that did not expect to find themselves elected on Friday with an unexpected career change?
The dramatic swings reported in he TNS poll for STV and the high percentage not declaring themselves as committed to voting for one political party is a sign of further problems for the Labour campaign.
Iain Gray is claiming that this gives him the uncommitted vote to play for, but the figures point to those plumping for Labour in previous polls – now undecided.
As the percentages in the TNS poll are for those committed to vote for one of the parties, this has pushed up SNP and even the Tory and L/Dem vote shares whilst the Labour vote is now in freefall.
This underlines just how vulnerable Labour is, even in areas where they could never have imagined themselves to be under pressure.
Seems we live in changed times but only the electorate will determine the reality.
With meltdown already accepted within Labour ranks, the left wing news sites are already articulating contempt for the Labour campaign and leadership.
It might be Labour’s Fukushima moment.
But don’t forget to watch the Lib Dem seats in Edinburgh. One thing is certain Tavish Scott will hold his Shetland seat but others are hanging on a shoogly peg.
Russell Bruce